The meltdown of the U.S. financial system was no accident; it was predictable and inevitable given the confluence of economic deregulation, trickle-down economic theory, distracting preemptive wars, and the ascent of the Republican Party's political juggernaut. The police on the beat were bribed to look the other way while the American Treasury was looted during successive Republican regimes. The police are still looking the other way.
The Democratic Party, also co-opted by big corporate campaign donations, has gone along for the ride which ushered in a period of great wealth for the few and increasing economic insecurity for the many. A shrinking middle class, however, is only one harbinger of the economic, political and social tsunami that is lurking just over the horizon. Huge and historic federal government deficits and debt (exacerbated by shameless corporate bailouts), bankruptcies of individuals, corporations, entire industries, and local and state governments are further indications that American hegemony is in jeopardy.
Where is all this taking us? What sort of future does the average American have to look forward to? In the short term the United States will muddle through, although it will become clear that we no longer hold the title as the world's only Super Power. Increasingly we will have to share that title with Communist China. The leaders of that huge country, adapting and modifying Capitalism to suit their own political and economic agenda for world domination, care little about human or worker rights, the environment, economic justice or world opinion.
Communist China currently holds over one trillion dollars of U.S. debt which it can use to undermine U. S. foreign policy and national security interests. America will become increasingly impotent in its dealings with Communist China over such divisive issues as Korea, Taiwan, Tibet and other regional and international flashpoints. Differing ideological, military, economic, and environmental agendas will continue to separate our two nations.
East met West in the last century when Imperial Japan and its East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere placed it on a collision course with America. Japan came very close to winning WW II, and only America's superior industrial capacity, technological superiority, and military savvy and courage prevented our defeat. Now a new Asian colossus threatens America’s dominance of the Pacific and the world. In the next ten years the United States and Communist China will continue to drift toward war. The world, if it survives this likely confrontation of giants, will be a far different place than it is today.
Global warming may well be the catalyst for a new confrontation between China and the United States, given Beijing’s refusal to clean up its rampant pollution. But the real reasons may be financial. Today, China’s current account balance with the U.S. is 372 billion dollars, our two countries compete fiercely for scarce raw materials, and much of our debt is held by this economic powerhouse. In one bold stroke they can, if they choose, cripple our economy by refusing to buy more U.S. Government bonds. If bond sales drop suddenly, this can have drastic results.
For the average American this means that no longer will we be able to turn to Washington for help. Unable to borrow more on world markets, Uncle Sam will simply not have the money. Servicing the nation's existing debt (paying interest) will eat up an increasing percentage of tax revenue, as will Social Security and Medicare obligations. Corporations, burdened by their own fiscal limitations, will continue to cut workers, pensions and health care, while reducing products and services. Climate change will compound these financial problems by limiting the amount and variety of food we eat, while increasing the cost of food that is available. Drought, famine, floods and scarcity will become a fact of life for future generations of Americans. We are already close to being beyond the point of no return with regard to global warming. More and more scientists claim that it is accelerating, not slowing down as pollution from our industries, power plants and transport continues unabated.
The only hope, in my opinion, is a rational, timely and democratic revolution by people all over the world. If enough people see and understand the grave danger that our world is in, maybe they will compel their leaders to take strong and decisive action to reverse direction, and/or take independent action themselves. The big problem will be non-democratic states like Communist China and Russia. These regimes, and others like them, will repress their people if they demonstrate their support for global cooperation to reverse climate change, and promote economic justice and human rights. The next great conflict will pit the East and West against one another as each focuses on two radically different paradigms - one democratic and the other authoritarian.
What’s at stake? Who will win? I hope the forces of Life and Freedom win. But I am under no illusion that our ultimate victory is inevitable or preordained. Much will depend on the spirit of the American people and our allies in the coming struggle. If the American People and their leaders choose correctly, there is a chance that our bold American Democratic Experiment may continue for another two-hundred years. We have triumphed over much adversity during our history. Only the wisdom and courage of ordinary citizens will decide our collective fate. This is, after all, a Nation of the People, By the People, and For the People. In the end our Democracy will only be as strong, and as enduring, as we are. The American Future is in our hands.
Art Apruzzese
San Luis Obispo, California
August 2, 2009
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